In True Democracy You Never Walk Alone

In True Democracy You Never Walk Alone

With the current NDA government celebrating its two years in power and huge celebration taking place by the ruling government that “Achhe Din “are here is a subject of debate and depending on what facet of society you represent everyone has its own version and answers. However, the common consensus is that more has been promised and spoken about and less has actually been delivered.  The NDA government has not been able to work with the other parties and despite having won significant majority in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP led NDA had only 24% seats in the Rajya Sabha in the upper house. For NDA, this lack of majority in the Rajya Sabha has translated into delays in implementation of legislations such as GST (Goods and Services Tax), Land acquisition bill, etc. Recently, the budget session of Feb-May 2016 saw improved co-ordination between political parties resulting in clearance of multiple legislations such as real estate bill and bankruptcy bill among others. After the Lok Shaha election the present composition of the Lok Sabha is as follows:

Lok Sabha Seats		Seat %
NDA	336	61.88%
Others	147	27.07%
UPA	60	11.05%
TOTAL	543

The Rajya Sabha (i.e. Council of States, 245 members) has similar powers in terms of legislation as the Lok Sabha, except in money bills. The number of seats in Rajya Sabha is defined for each state and Union Territories (UT) and members are elected by the elected members of respective state assemblies (&12 members are nominated by President) for a period of 6 years. 1/3rd of the members retire every two years and new members are elected as and when there is a vacancy/retirement. During 2016, elections will be held for 58 members (incl. 3 vacancy) and for 10 members in 2017. The NDA tally is expected to rise by 5 seats to 69 seats within next 1 year (based on the analysis of current state assembly strength), they will still remain a minority with 28% share even as the share of the key opposition party UPA is expected to weaken to 68 seats (1 below NDA).  

The present composition of the Rajya Sabha is as follows:

Group & Party	No. of Members	Member %
NDA
Bharatiya Janta Party	49
Telegu Desam Party	6
Shiromani Akali Dal	3
Shiv Sena	3
Naga Peoples Front	1
Republican Party of India (A)	1
Bodoland People's Front	1
TOTAL NDA	64	26.12%
UPA
Indian National Congress	64
Nationalist Congress Party	6
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha	1
Kerala Congress (M)	1
Rashtriya Janta Dal	1
TOTAL UPA	73	29.80%
Samajwadi Party	15
Janta Dal (United)	13
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham	12
All India Trinamool Congress	12
Bahunjan Samaj Party	10
Nominated	9
Communist Party of India (Marxist)	8
Biju Janta Dal	7
Independent & Others	6
Dravida Munnetra Kazagham	4
J&K Peoples Democratic Party	2
Communist Party of India	1
Indian National Lok Dal	1
Indian Union Muslim League	1
Janta Dal (Secular)	1
Sikkim Democratic Front	1
Telangana Rashtra Samithi	1
TOTAL OTHERS	104	42.45%
NDA+UPA+ Others *	241
* 3 Seats vacant & 1 empty nominated seat

The key states where NDA/UPA will gain/ loose seats in the Rajya Sabha in the next one year is as follows:

States	NDA	UPA	Others
Rajasthan	3	-1	-1
Maharashtra	2	-2
Arunachal Pradesh	1	2	1
Bihar	1	2	-3
Goa	1	-1
Gujarat		1
Uttar Pradesh		-1	1
Tamil Nadu		-1	1
Haryana	-1		1
Karnataka	-1	1	1
Telangana	-1	-1	2
TOTAL	5	-5	3

          

Legislative activity picked-up in last session of Rajya Sabha, during last two years, Rajya Sabha has seen high variation in its utilization, with working hours going as low as 11% (monsoon session 2015) to the high of 90% (budget session 2016). Co-operation with regional parties as well as with UPA (on select bills) has led to a number of bills being passed during the 2016 budget session. However, the passage of GST bill (constitution amendment) requires broader consensus - approval from 2/3rd of the members of each house and passage from at least 15 state assemblies. Based on current strength and opposition from UPA and Left parties on GST; ruling NDA would need votes from almost every other member for its passage in Rajya Sabha which is not an easy feat to achieve.

After the landslide victory of the NDA in the Lok Sabha election in 2014, it has been witnessed that the NDA is trying really hard to make its presences felt in the various state election but the results have not been very favorable except in case of the recent Assam state elections, the number of seats in the Rajya Sabha is state specific and hence each state has a certain representation in the Rajya Sabha. The Rajya Sabha seats at present state and party wise is as follows:

Rajya Sabha seats at present State & Party wise	NDA	UPA	Others	TOTAL
Uttar Pradesh	3	3	25	31
Maharashtra	7	11	1	19
Tamil Nadu		1	17	18
West Bengal		1	15	16
Bihar	4		12	16
Andhra Pradesh	4	6	1	11
Madhya Pradesh	8	3		11
Karnataka	5	4	2	11
Gujarat	8	2		10
Nominated	2		9	11
Odisha		1	9	10
Kerala		5	4	9
Rajasthan	5	3	1	9
Assam	1	6		7
Punjab	4	3		7
Telangana	3	4		7
Jharkhand	1	4	1	6
Chattisgarh	3	2		5
Haryana	2	2	1	5
Jammu & Kashmir	1	1	2	4
Himachal Pradesh	1	2		3
National Capital Territory Delhi		3		3
Uttarakhand	1	2		3
Puducherry			1	1
Arunachal Pradesh		1		1
Goa		1		1
Manipur		1		1
Meghalaya		1		1
Mizoram		1		1
Nagaland	1			1
Sikkim			1	1
Tripura			1	1
TOTAL	64	74	103	241

At present there are 3 seats vacant and 1 empty nomination seat there by taking the total tally to 245 members in the Rajya Sabha.

Hence the NDA would like to capture a majority in as many as states as possible so that in turn their tally of members in Rajya Sabha increase which would enable them to pass the key bills.

NDA would need support of regional parties to pass key legislations and may be in case of the opposition from UPA and Left.

NDA needs at least 59 votes to pass bills in the Raja Sabha

UPA+ Left	82
NDA	64
Half Way	123
Additional Votes required	59

For constitutional amendment bills such as GST, support of 99 members (out of 104) is needed at present.

UPA+ Left	82
NDA	64
2/3 votes required	163
Additional Votes required for 2/3 strength	99

          BJP led NDA won 62% of total seats in Lok Sabha (Lower house of parliament) during May 2014 General elections, with BJP on its own obtaining 281 seats (51%). Despite its significant majority in Lok Sabha, a weaker presence of NDA in Upper House (RS, 24% of seats at May-14) has impacted passage of legislation such as GST bill, which need 2/3rd approval from both the houses of Parliament. In addition, Government has faced opposition in passing land acquisition bill due to lack of majority in Rajya Sabha.

           

    Rajya Sabha members are elected by the method of proportional representation and members keep retiring after their 6-year tenure and elections take place as and when there is a vacancy. Rajya Sabha meets in continuous sessions, and unlike the Lok Sabha is not subject to dissolution.

  Rajya Sabha (Council of States) has similar powers in terms of legislation as Lok Sabha except in case of money bills. In the case of conflicting legislation, a joint sitting of the two houses can be held. Joint sittings of the Houses of Parliament are however rare, and have been called in only three times in independent India, last in 2002. However, unlike Lok Sabha, a member of the Rajya Sabha cannot bring to the house, a motion of no confidence against the government.

Over the last two years, NDA has seen marginal increase in Rajya Sabha members to 64 (May-16), up from 59 in May-14, but still trails behind key opposition party Congress led UPA (73 seats).

Rajya Sabha has seen wide variation in performance and loss of up to 89% of time in the 2015 Monsoon session. However, the last two sessions have seen much lower disruptions and passage of a number of bills – across departments. The passage has been enabled by the help of regional parties and also principal opposition group UPA in some of the cases.

Hence in order for the NDA to carry out the desired reforms it is extremely important for them to reach out to the other parties to get the support in the Rajya Sabha to pass the key bills hence floor management and ability of the NDA government would be tested in the next two years to a large extent.

As in a true democracy like India, in spite of having a super majority in the lower house of parliament it is extremely important to have a collaborative effort and ability to reach out else passage of key bills would be rather difficult resulting in overall lack of progress for the economy and the country on the whole. As in a true democracy you never walk alone.

_ Farzan Ghadially